Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
